The first leg of the Europa League 2025/26 qualifying playoff between Lech (Poland) and Genk (Belgium) will take place on August 21 at the Poznan Stadium. Lech vs. Genk: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Donatas Rumsas (Lithuania)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 23%.
Neither side has had much joy at the start of the new season. With a place in the Europa League group stage on the line, this first leg is about laying down a foundation — otherwise, the fallback will be the Conference League.
Polish champions Lech fell out of the Champions League in the third qualifying round, losing to Crvena Zvezda (1:3) away and drawing 1:1 at home. Domestically, they were then held by Korona (1:1). The pattern in Poznań is clear: in all six of their home games this season they have conceded, and five of those have gone over the total. Wins have also been hard to come by — just two so far.
Genk have also had a sluggish start in the Belgian Pro League, sitting eighth after four rounds with only one victory. The difference is that this will be their first appearance in Europe this season, so the form guide comes entirely from domestic matches. Under Thorsten Fink, they have seen both teams score in all four league outings and three of those finish over 2.5 goals.
With those numbers, both teams to score or over 2.5 goals look logical. Their last meeting, back in 2018 in Poznań, ended 2:1 in favour of the visitors — and we lean towards another high-scoring game.
